Chavez plans new referendum
Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez says he expects a fresh referendum in February on a move allowing him to stand for re-election.

Republican wins key Senate race
US Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss wins re-election in Georgia, dashing the Democrats’ hopes of a “super-majority”.

US carmakers publish rescue plans
US carmakers General Motors, Ford and Chrysler present their new cost-cutting plans to Congress.

Thai demonstrators leave airports
Thai anti-government protesters hand over Bangkok’s main airports to the authorities after an eight-day blockade.

Chinese dairy exports in decline
China’s dairy exports have all but ground to a halt following the scandal earlier this year when milk was tainted with melamine.

15 year term sought in Munir case
Prosecutors request a 15-year jail term for an ex-spy chief accused of ordering a murder, but are accused of leniency.

nato

Nato has agreed to a “conditional and graduated re-engagement” with Russia, the alliance’s secretary general says.

Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said talks with Moscow, which were frozen over its war with Georgia in August, would resume.

The Nato-Russia Council is not being restored, but the Nato chief said lower-level talks would take place.

Foreign ministers meeting in Brussels also reiterated their support for eventual Nato membership for Georgia and Ukraine.

But Nato is deeply divided on the subject, and did not offer the countries their desired membership action plan (MAP).

Moscow strongly opposes their ambitions to join the alliance, and some countries, like Germany, France and Italy, fear offering them MAPs would provoke Russia, correspondents say.

Instead, ministers encouraged Tbilisi and Kiev to pursue reforms needed to join the alliance, without any timetable for entry.

Mr de Hoop Scheffer said that all previous decisions made by Nato heads of state regarding Georgia and Ukraine still stood.

“That includes very much that they will one day be members, if they so wish of course, and important to add, when they meet Nato standards,” he said.

The BBC’s Caroline Wyatt in Brussels says it is clear that neither country will become a member any time soon, and that assistance is all Nato can offer for now.

‘Problematic’

Nato ministers have not revived the Nato-Russia Council, but Mr de Hoop Scheffer said they had agreed to a resumption of lower-level dialogue.

“The Nato-Russia Council will meet on an informal basis to re-engage and to have discussions on the issues on which we will agree and, I would also like to add, on the issues on which we disagree,” he said.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, attending her final Nato meeting, insisted “this is not business as usual” and that she still considered Russia’s action in Georgia in August to be “unacceptable”.

She added: “This is not about competition and conflict and domination, but rather about co-operation in a framework in which one treats one’s neighbours, even if they were once a part of the Soviet Union, as equals in the international system.”

Russia’s permanent representative to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, welcomed the decision and said his country was ready for dialogue.

“It is now clear that Nato has accepted the reality that has been shaped by Russia,” he said.

Thousands of Russian troops are still stationed in Georgia’s rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

On Tuesday, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili warned the West of “grave risks of returning to business as usual” with Russia without holding it to account for its actions in Georgia.

“If the international response is not firm, Moscow will make other moves to redraw the region’s map by intimidation or force,” Mr Saakashvili wrote in an article in the Wall Street Journal.

If the international response is not firm, Moscow will make other moves to redraw the region’s map
Mikhail Saakashvili

‘No shortcuts’

Nato was deeply divided on how to proceed following the conflict in August and had to sidestep some bruising internal debates to reach the day’s decisions, correspondents say.

While the US and newer Nato members, from the former Warsaw Pact, are keen to draw Georgia and Ukraine closer, others like Germany and France are wary of antagonising Russia, a key energy supplier.

Nato also does not want Russia to think it has a veto over who joins the alliance, the BBC’s Caroline Wyatt says.

The war also raised doubts among many members over whether Georgia, with its disputed territories, was ready to join the bloc or remained too volatile.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has been beset by political turbulence, with the country split on Nato membership.

Correspondents says it will be a struggle for the alliance to prevent divisions on the issue hardening into permanent fault lines.

obama
Obama addresses jubilant crowds in Chicago

Democratic Senator Barack Obama has been elected the first black president of the United States.

“It’s been a long time coming, but tonight… change has come to America,” the president-elect told a jubilant crowd at a victory rally in Chicago.

His rival John McCain accepted defeat, saying “I deeply admire and commend” Mr Obama. He called on his supporters to lend the next president their goodwill.

The BBC’s Justin Webb said the result would have a profound impact on the US.

“On every level America will be changed by this result… [it] will never be the same,” he said.

McCain: ‘We must work together’

Mr Obama appeared with his family, and his running mate Joe Biden, before a crowd of tens of thousands in Grant Park, Chicago.

Many people in the vast crowd, which stretched back far into the Chicago night, wept as Mr Obama spoke.

“If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer,” he said.

He said he had received an “extraordinarily gracious” call from Mr McCain.

He praised the former Vietnam prisoner of war as a “brave and selfless leader”.
OBAMA GAINS
Ohio
New Mexico
Iowa
Virginia
Florida
Colorado
Nevada

“He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine,” the victor said.

He had warm words for his family, announcing to his daughters: “Sasha and Malia, I love you both more than you can imagine, and you have earned the new puppy that’s coming with us to the White House.”

But he added: “Even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime – two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century.

“The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. But America – I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there.”

Hours after Mr Obama’s victory was announced, crowds were still celebrating in Chicago and on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington DC.

From red to blue

Mr Obama captured the key battleground states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, before breaking through the winning threshold of 270 electoral college votes at 0400 GMT, when projections showed he had also taken California and a slew of other states.

I find myself strangely emotional about this. I want to go wake up my neighbours and hug them
Amy Scullane, Boston

Then came the news that he had also seized Florida, Virginia and Colorado – all of which voted Republican in 2004 – turning swathes of the map from red to blue.

Several other key swing states are hanging in the balance.

In Indiana and North Carolina, with most of the vote counted, there was less than 0.5% between the two candidates.

However, the popular vote remains close. At 0600 GMT it stood at 51.3% for the Democratic Senator from Illinois, against 47.4% for Arizona Senator Mr McCain.

The main developments include:
Mr Obama is projected to have seized Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada – all Republican wins in 2004.
He is also projected to have won: Vermont, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Delaware, Massachusetts, District of Columbia, Maryland, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, Rhode Island, California, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon.
Mr McCain is projected to have won: Alaska, Kentucky, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Kansas, North Dakota, Wyoming, Georgia, Louisiana, West Virginia, Texas, Mississippi, Utah, Arizona, Idaho, South Dakota.
Turnout was reported to be extremely high – in some places “unprecedented”.
The Democrats made gains in the Senate race, seizing seats from the Republicans in Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Colorado. They also increased their majority of the House of Representatives.
Exit polls suggest the economy was the major deciding factor for six out of 10 voters.
Nine out of 10 said the candidates’ race was not important to their vote, the Associated Press reported. Almost as many said age did not matter.

Several states reported very high turnout. It was predicted 130 million Americans, or more, would vote – more than for any election since 1960.

Many people said they felt they had voted in a historic election – and for many African-Americans the moment was especially poignant.

Congratulations… You are about to go on one of the great journeys of life

President George W Bush

John Lewis, an activist in the civil rights era who was left beaten on an Alabama bridge 40 years ago, told Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church: “This is a great night. It is an unbelievable night. It is a night of thanksgiving.”

Besides winning the presidency, the Democrats tightened their grip on Congress.

The entire US House of Representatives and a third of US Senate seats were up for grabs.

Democrats won several Senate seats from the Republicans, but seemed unlikely to gain the nine extra they wanted to reach the 60-seat “super-majority” that could prevent Republicans blocking legislation.

obama
ओबामा की ऐतिहासिक जीत

अमरीका के राष्ट्रपति चुनावों में इतिहास रचते हुए डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी के उम्मीदवार बराक ओबामा अमरीका के पहले अश्वेत राष्ट्रपति बनने जा रहे हैं. रिपब्लिकन उम्मीदवार जॉन मक्कैन ने हार मान ली है.

अमरीकी राष्ट्रपति चुनने के लिए 538 इलेक्टॉरल कॉलेज मतों में से 270 की आवश्यकता होती है. चुनावों के ताज़ा रुझानों के मुताबिक ओबामा को इससे ज़्यादा मत मिलेंगे. इस बारे में आधिकारिक घोषणा में कुछ समय लगेगा.

मैक्केन के हार स्वीकार कर लेने के बाद, अपने भावुक समर्थकों को संबोधित करते हुए ओबामा ने कहा, “अमरीकी लोगों ने घोषणा की है कि बदलाव का समय आ गया है. अमरीका एक शताब्दी में सबसे गंभीर समस्याओं से जूझ रहा है मैं सभी अमरीकियों को साथ लेकर चलना चाहता हूँ – उनकों भी जिन्होंने मेरे लिए वोट नहीं डाला….ये नेतृत्व का एक नया सवेरा है. जो लोग दुनिया को ध्वस्त करना चाहते हैं, उन्हें मैं कहना चाहता हूँ कि हम तुम्हें हराएँगे. जो लोग सुरक्षा और शांति चाहते हैं, हम उनकी मदद करेंगे…”
अमरीकी लोगों ने घोषणा की है कि बदलाव का समय आ गया है. अमरीका एक शताब्दी में सबसे गंभीर समस्याओं से जूझ रहा है. मैं सभी अमरीकियों को साथ लेकर चलना चाहता हूँ – उनकों भी जिन्होंने मेरे लिए वोट नहीं डाला….ये नेतृत्व का एक नया सवेरा है. जो लोग दुनिया को ध्वस्त करना चाहते हैं, उन्हें मैं कहना चाहता हूँ कि हम तुम्हें हराएँगे. जो लोग सुरक्षा और शांति चाहते हैं, हम उनकी मदद करेंगे…”

डेमोक्रेट बराक ओबामा

रिपब्लिकन पार्टी के उम्मीदवार जॉन मैक्केन ने रुझानों के आधार पर ही अपनी हार स्वीकार कर ली थी और इसे ‘अमरीका के इतिहास में अश्वेत अमरीकियों के लिए इसे एक महत्वपूर्ण क्षण’ बताया था.

उनका कहना था, “मैं सीनेटर ओबामा का प्रशंसक हूँ. मैं आप से अपील करता हूँ कि अगले चार साल आप उन्हें सहयोग दें. लाखों अफ़्रीकी अमरीकियों के लिए एक नया दौर शुरु हुआ है. अमरीका दुनिया का सबसे महान देश है. ओबामा ने ये साबित कर दिया है कि अमरीका सभी लोगों को अपने सपने साकार करने का बराबर का अवसर प्रदान करता है.”

कई राज्यों में पछाड़ा

ओबामा ने ओहायो, न्यू मेक्सिको और पेन्नसिलवेनिया जैसे महत्वपूर्ण राज्यों में अपने रिपब्लिपन जॉन मैक्केन को करारा झटका देते हुए पछाड़ दिया. दक्षिणी राज्यों में मैक्केन को कुछ सफलता मिली लेकिन ये पर्याप्त नहीं था.

अमरीका में चुनाव: बीबीसी हिंदी विशेष

महत्वपूर्ण है कि केलिफ़ोर्निया में अभी मतदान ख़त्म ही हुआ था कि मैक्केन ने अपनी हार स्वीकार कर ली.
मैं सीनेटर ओबामा का प्रशंसक हूँ. मैं आप से अपील करता हूँ कि अगले चार साल आप उन्हें सहयोग दें. लाखों अफ़्रीकी अमरीकियों के लिए एक नया दौर शुरु हुआ है. अमरीका दुनिया का सबसे महान देश है. ओबामा ने ये साबित कर दिया है कि अमरीका सभी लोगों को अपने सपने साकार करने का बराबर का अवसर प्रदान करता है

रिपब्लिकन जॉन मैक्केन

इससे पहले अनेक प्रांतों में मतदान केंद्रों पर लंबी कतारें देखी गईं. अनुमान लगाया जा रहा है कि 1960 के बाद रिकॉर्ड वोटिंग हुई.

अमरीका में मुख्य पार्टियों का इतिहास

राष्ट्रपति पद के लिए इस बार चुनाव अभियान लगभग दो साल तक चला और इस प्रचार को अमरीका के इतिहास में अब तक का सबसे महँगा चुनाव प्रचार कहा जा रहा है, जिसमें लगभग लगभग 2.4 अरब डॉलर ख़र्च हुए है.

मैक्केन दक्षिणी में सफल

बीबीसी संवाददाता निक ब्रयांट के अनुसार पेन्नसिलवेनिया और न्यू हेंपशायर को रिपब्लिकन मैक्केन ने निशाना बनाया था लेकिन ये प्रांत डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी के पाले में गए.

लेकिन मैक्केन को सबसे करारा झटका ओहायो में लगा क्योंकि पिछले कई दशकों में कोई भी रिपब्लिकन उम्मीदवार बिना ओहायो जीते व्हाइट हाउस में नहीं पहुँच पाया है. लेकिन यहाँ भी रुझान ओबामा के पक्ष में रहा.

वर्ष 2004 के अमरीकी चुनाव

वर्ष 2000 में ख़ासे विवाद का केंद्र रहे फ़्लोरिडा में भी ओबामा ही आगे रहे.

ओहायो, पेन्नसिलवेनिया और कई अन्य राज्यों में मैकेन ने ख़ासी महनत की लेकिन कामयाबी नहीं मिली

उधर रिपब्लिकन जॉन मैक्केन ने दक्षिणी राज्यों में ख़ासी सफलता पाई और जॉर्जिया जैसे प्रांत में भी आगे निकल गए लेकिन वे लगातार पिछड़ते ही चले गए.

उम्मीद के अनुसार केंटकी में जॉन मैक्केन आगे रहे, वहीं वरमोंट में बराक ओबामा ने बढ़त हासिल की है.

कई जगह उथल-पुथल

चुनाव में लगभग तीन करोड़ वोटरों ने ‘अर्ली वोटिंग’ के तहत अपना वोट दर्ज कराया था जो कि एक रिकॉर्ड है.

जहाँ ओबामा ने अपने गृह प्रांत इलिनॉय ने परिवार सहित वोट डाला वहीं मैक्केन ने एरिज़ोना में वोट डाला.

न्यू हैम्पशायर में सबसे पहले मंगलवार को वोट डाला गया जहाँ बराक ओबामा ने अपने प्रतिद्वंदी को पछाड़ दिया. वर्ष 1968 के बाद यह पहला मौका है जब रुझानों के मुताबिक यह शहर डेमोक्रेट के पाले में गया.

The CNN announced that Democrat Barack Obama became the 44th President of the United States. According to CNN, Obama has a lead of 297-139 over Republican John McCain with 102 more votes still to be counted. Obama’s associate Democrat Joe Biden has been elected Vice President of the United States.

Obama became the first African-American President of the United States. The latest results came from Virginia, Florida, Colorado and California, which gave a thumbs up to Barack Obama. He also won in Ohio and New Mexico. Republican John McCain called up Barack Obama to concede defeat. Latest reports suggest that Obama now leads 338-155 over McCain.

As the results of US Presidential elections results began rolling out, Democrat Barack Obama maintained a comprehensive lead over Republican John McCain. Out of 538 electorate, Obama has won 220 while McCain has won 135 so far. Results from 35 out of 50 states are available at the moment. Obama has won 20 states, while McCain has won 15 states. Counting is on progress in 16 remaining states.

According to the current trend, Barack Obama is projected to win 300 – 325 electorate votes out of 538. He needs the magic number 270 to become the first non-white President of the United States, which seems a strong possibility now.

Barack Obama has won in Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Vermont, Massachussets, Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Maine, Illiois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia and District of Columbia. John McCain has won 15 states – Utah, Kansas,Arkansas, Texas, Mississipi, Kentucky, Oklahama, Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wyoming, North Dakota and West Virginia.

The American History suggests that nobody was elected President without winning Ohio and Barack Obama has set the record straight by claiming victory there. Ohio and New Mexico turned Democrats for the first time. According to current projections, Obama controls 51% of votes, while McCain controls 48% of votes. Around 33,277,281 voters have supported Obama, while 31,574,716 voters have supported McCain as of now. There is little doubt that America is bracing for a change and Barack Obama will become the new President.


Georgia said on Thursday that Russia had deployed 2,000 additional troops into South Ossetia in the past week and was preparing “provocations” in the breakaway territory.

“In the past week, Russia increased the number of troops by 2,000 to 7,000 staff,” Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili told a news conference.

“We fear Russia is preparing provocations in South Ossetia,” he said.

There was no immediate response from Russian authorities.

Utiashvili said dozens of Russian armoured vehicles had been positioned in the disputed Akhalgori region, the southeastern corner of South Ossetia which Georgia insists should be returned to Tbilisi’s control under a French-brokered ceasefire deal.

Russia sent troops and tanks into Georgia in August to repel an offensive by the Georgian military to retake pro-Russian South Ossetia, which threw off Tbilisi’s rule in 1991-92.

Russia’s powerful counter-strike drove the Georgian Army out of South Ossetia, and Moscow’s troops then pushed further into Georgia, saying they needed to prevent Georgian attacks.

The West condemned Russia for a “disproportionate response” and Russian troops have since pulled back from buffer zones around South Ossetia and a second breakaway region, Abkhazia.

The Kremlin has recognised both rebel regions as independent states and said it would station 7,600 troops there to provide security.

A 225-strong European Union mission is monitoring the ceasefire, patrolling the former buffer zone around South Ossetia up to its de facto border.

Russia says the mission will not be allowed to operate inside South Ossetia.
US missile defence

The United States has signed a deal with Poland allowing it to install missiles at a base on the Baltic Sea. It already has an agreement to build a radar station in the Czech Republic.

The deals form part of US plans for a European missile defence shield to counter what it describes as the threat from “rogue states” such as Iran.

Iran recently carried out new tests of its Shahab-3 ballistic missile, which is said to have a range of 2,000km (1,240 miles).

But Russia says the US plan is unnecessary and has threatened to retaliate militarily if the missile defence system is built.


What is the US proposing to do?

Iranian test of Shahab-2 missile, November 2006

Iran has held regular tests of its long-range missiles

The US says its missile defence system is intended to destroy incoming ballistic missiles potentially coming from North Korea and Iran.

This involves using radars in Alaska and California in the US and at Fylingdales in the UK. Another radar is planned for Greenland.

Anti-missile missiles, or interceptors, are being based in Alaska (40 of them) and California (four).

There would also be 130 interceptors based on ships. The interceptors work by physically hitting the ballistic missile in mid-flight. There would also be missiles to try to destroy incoming rockets in the final stages.

However, the US plans to install 10 more interceptors in silos in Poland, and build a radar station in the Czech Republic.

It hopes that construction of the Czech facility – using a radar currently located at Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands – could begin next year, with the first interceptors in place in Poland by 2011 and the system fully operational by 2012.


Why in Eastern Europe?

The US says there is a gap in its anti-missile defences.

A threat from North Korea could be countered with the US and sea-based systems.

But European allies or US forces in Europe could be threatened by Iran one day, Washington says, or indeed some other country, so there needs to be a system based in Europe as well.

Will it work?

The theory is that the interceptor missile homes in on and destroys its target in the air by physically hitting the incoming warhead.

However, the closing speed of interceptor and target will be 24,000kph (14,900mph), or 6.5km (4 miles) per second – so the task is more difficult than hitting a bullet with another bullet.

The system’s supporters say that not only does it work, but it is even more accurate than that.

But critics say that, despite having spent over $100bn (£54bn), the Pentagon still has not proved the system can work in realistic conditions.

Independent scientific bodies in the US have said that tests of the system’s intercept capabilities have been highly scripted, with the defence being given detailed information about the attack beforehand.

They also argue that the defence system could be easily circumvented by potential attackers.

Why does Russia object?

Former Soviet military base at Brdy in the Czech Republic

The US wants to place radar at this old base in the Czech Republic

Moscow says that the missiles in Poland and the radar in the Czech Republic could threaten its own defences. The system might be small to start with, it says, but could expand. The radar could be used to spy on Russia.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that “we will not be hysterical about this, but we will think of retaliatory steps”.

The Pentagon says this is just “bellicose rhetoric” from Russia “designed to make Europeans nervous”.

Russian objections to the US missile shield grew more strident after the US signed its preliminary deal with Poland in August 2008, at a time when Moscow and the West were already at loggerheads over Russian troops involvement in fighting in Georgia.

A top Russian general said the Poland move would be punished. Moscow’s envoy to Nato was quoted as saying that the timing of the deal revealed that Moscow, rather than Iran, was the target of the missile shield plans.

Has Russian proposed any alternatives?

Moscow suggested that the US could use a Russian-rented radar site in Azerbaijan, which shares a border with Iran.

Former President Putin also offered use of a radar site in southern Russia and proposed working with the US and other European countries on a joint defence system.

But the US showed little interest in either idea.

How serious in the threat to Europe?

The Iranian military says its Shahab-3 missiles have a range of 2,000km (1,240 miles).

This means that they could reach south-eastern Europe, hitting targets in Nato members Greece, Bulgaria or Romania.

Russia says that this limited range means that the US missile defence plan is unnecessary, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying that negotiations, not threats, were the best way to deal with concerns about Iranian intentions.

The White House said the latest Iranian tests of its Shahab-3 missile do not change the US position on building a European defence shield.

Have Poland and the Czech Republic agreed to the deployment?

It’s not yet a done deal.

NUCLEAR WARHEADS

Russia
Land-launched: 2,146
Sea-launched: 1,392
Air-launched: 624

US
Land-launched: 1,600

Sea-launched: 3,168
Air-launched: 1,098

Source: Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) data 2007

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has signed an agreement with the Czech government to build the radar station at Brdy, south-west of Prague, but this has to be ratified by parliament.

The Czech government will need the support of some opposition parties to see the measure through. Meanwhile, there is significant public resistance to the plan, with 100,000 people signing a petition calling for a referendum on the issue. Opinion polls indicate that about two-thirds of Czechs do not want the project to go ahead.

Poland signed a preliminary agreement with the US over siting missiles at a Baltic Sea base in August 2008. In exchange, the US agreed to help upgrade Poland’s armed forces.

The deal needs further ratification and the centre-left government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk has been considerably cooler on the issue than the previous government, which lost power in October 2007.

What international agreements cover these moves?

None. The US withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2001.

Ranges of Russian Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

This treaty limited US and Soviet anti-missile defences to one site each. The Russians still operate theirs, around Moscow.

The US chose to defend its strategic rockets in North Dakota but this defence has been deactivated.

Part of the Russian unhappiness about the Europe sector of the anti-missile system is that it results from the US withdrawal from the ABM treaty and Russia is worried about where it might go next.

Russia has announced the testing of a new multiple-warhead missile, the RS-24, which it says is designed to overcome missile defences. It is also developing new cruise missiles.

The US says it should not be worried.

Is this the start of a new Cold War?

It is certainly a difficult period where mistrust and antagonism are prevalent.

The hopes that Russia and the United States could be friendly allies have not been realised so far.

Instead there is suspicion and this is likely to continue, though to call it a new Cold War is probably going too far.

In May 2008, President Medvedev took over from Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, and so far he has continued his predecessor vehement disapproval of the US project.

President George W Bush will leave office in January 2009, and the incoming president could take a different line on the issue.

However, both candidates in November’s presidential election – Republican Sen John McCain and Democrat Sen Barack Obama – have spoken of the threat posed by Iran.

What ballistic missiles do the US and Russia have?

They have dramatically reduced their arsenals from the Cold War days but still retain substantial forces of several thousand missiles and nuclear warheads each.

Under the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) signed by presidents Bush and Putin in 2002, each side has to reduce its deployed warheads to a maximum of 2,200 by 2012.



US missile defences

Russia has its own radar early warning system, short-range interceptor missiles in bases around Moscow and a number of land-based Intercontinental Ballistic Missile launch sites across the country.

Russian missile sites

Testing for a new ‘Cold War’ in Crimea


By Paul Reynolds


World affairs correspondent, BBC News website

Russian warship enters Sevastopol

Cheers for a Russian warship as it enters Sevastopol

The Russian military operation against Georgia and its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have led to concerns amounting at times to near panic about whether a new Cold War is under way.

The Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has said that he does not want a new Cold War but is not afraid of one either.

So is the conflict a turning-point heralding a new age of confrontation or just a limited Russian action to resolve two border disputes left over from the Soviet era?

Or something in between, a sign of uncertainty on both sides which will mean tension but not the kind of ideological struggle and military stand-off that was the Cold War itself?

New test

A good test of Russian intentions could come in Crimea, the territory jutting out in the Black Sea. It is part of Ukraine.

BBC map

The French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said: “It’s very dangerous. There are other objectives that one can suppose are the objectives of Russia, in particular Crimea, Ukraine
and Moldova.”

The problem over Crimea is this. Crimea was handed over to Ukraine from the Russian Soviet Republic by Nikita Khrushchev in 1954. However ethnic Russians still make up the majority of its nearly 2 million inhabitants. It is also home to the Russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol, on which Russia has a lease until 2017.

Sevastopol has resonance in Russian history, from the siege by the British and French in 1854-55. There have been small demonstrations there recently calling for Crimea to be returned to Russia. Valery Podyachy, head of the Sevastopol-Crimea-Russia Popular Front, said: “While Russia sent aid to flood-hit Ukrainian regions, Ukraine failed to help Russia to force Georgia to peace, and took an openly hostile stance.”

There is the potential therefore for trouble. If Russia started to agitate on behalf of its “brothers” in Crimea and argued that it must have Sevastopol (even though it is building another base), Crimea could provide certainly a test of Russian ambitions and possibly a flashpoint.

Western worries

This fear of future Russian actions partly explains the Western worries. The British Foreign Secretary David Miliband has gone to Ukraine talking of forming “the widest possible coalition against Russian aggression in Georgia”.

Mr Miliband is positioning himself at the hawkish end of the Western response. He said in a speech in Kiev that events in Georgia had been a “rude awakening” and that a “hard-headed engagement” with Russia was needed. But he added: “The Russian President says he is not afraid of a new Cold War. We don’t want
one. He has a big responsibility not to start one.”

The US Vice President Dick Cheney is going to Georgia. Nato has met to declare that there can be no “business as usual” with Russia.

People are looking up the principles laid down by US diplomat George Kennan after World War II that called for the “containment” of an aggressive Soviet union.

The other view

There is another view, though, and this holds that while Russian intentions are not to be trusted, it cannot be wholly blamed for what happened in South Ossetia.

The former British ambassador to Yugoslavia, Sir Ivor Roberts, said: “Moscow has acted brutally in Georgia. But when the United States and Britain backed the independence of Kosovo without UN approval, they paved the way for Russia’s ‘defence’ of South Ossetia, and for the current Western humiliation.

“What is sauce for the Kosovo goose is sauce for the South Ossetian gander.”

The borders issue

Behind all this also lies the problem of European borders. During and after the Cold War, it was held (and still is) that borders, however unreasonable to the inhabitants, could not be changed without agreement.

This has given governments a veto. Serbia tried to veto the break-up of Yugoslavia. Georgia has not allowed Abkhazia and South Ossetia to secede. Ukraine holds on to Crimea etc.

The potential for a clash between the competing interests of local people and central governments is obvious.

The fear that borders may unravel also helps explain why the Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia has upset Western governments so much.

Their problem, however, is that they offer no solutions to those disputes beyond best intentions and a status quo policed by peacekeepers, a status quo that can easily be upset.

Russian drone ‘hit over Georgia’


map

Georgia says its military has shot down a Russian reconnaissance drone that was flying over Georgian territory – a claim denied by Russia.

The unmanned plane was downed south of the de facto border with breakaway South Ossetia, the Georgian government said, though no evidence was provided.

Russia dismissed the claim as “another media provocation by Georgia”.

Russia recognised the independence of South Ossetia after a short war broke out over the territory last month.

Russia has been withdrawing from Georgia proper under a ceasefire deal.

European Union monitors have been deploying in Georgia, to verify the Russian withdrawal and oversee the ceasefire. They are due to start patrolling on 1 October.

Georgia accused separatists from Abkhazia, a second breakaway region also recognised by Moscow, of breaching the ceasefire and shooting dead a Georgian police officer on Sunday.

Drone claims

Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said the drone was shot down on Monday near the town of Gori, some 30 km (20 miles) from South Ossetia.

“It was flying over the territory between the villages of Khurvaleti and Tsitelubani,” Mr Utiashvili said.

“We believe it was patrolling the territory where the Baku-Supsa [oil] pipeline runs.”

Reconnaissance flights played a role in escalating tensions between Georgia and Russia in the build-up to the war that broke out on 7 August.

In May Georgia released video pictures of what it said was a Russian jet shooting down a Georgian drone over Abkhazia.

Georgia said the jet had breached its territorial integrity – which was at that stage still recognised by Russia.

Russia denied its jet was involved, though UN monitors backed the Georgian claim.

Earlier in the month Abkhaz fighters said they had shot down two Georgian drones over Abkhazia – a claim denied by Georgia.

In July Russia admitted its jets had flown over South Ossetia.

The conflict in the region began when Georgia tried to retake South Ossetia by force after a series of lower-level clashes.

Russia launched a counter-attack and the Georgian troops were ejected from both South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russian drone ‘hit over Georgia’


map

Georgia says its military has shot down a Russian reconnaissance drone that was flying over Georgian territory – a claim denied by Russia.

The unmanned plane was downed south of the de facto border with breakaway South Ossetia, the Georgian government said, though no evidence was provided.

Russia dismissed the claim as “another media provocation by Georgia”.

Russia recognised the independence of South Ossetia after a short war broke out over the territory last month.

Russia has been withdrawing from Georgia proper under a ceasefire deal.

European Union monitors have been deploying in Georgia, to verify the Russian withdrawal and oversee the ceasefire. They are due to start patrolling on 1 October.

Georgia accused separatists from Abkhazia, a second breakaway region also recognised by Moscow, of breaching the ceasefire and shooting dead a Georgian police officer on Sunday.

Drone claims

Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said the drone was shot down on Monday near the town of Gori, some 30 km (20 miles) from South Ossetia.

“It was flying over the territory between the villages of Khurvaleti and Tsitelubani,” Mr Utiashvili said.

“We believe it was patrolling the territory where the Baku-Supsa [oil] pipeline runs.”

Reconnaissance flights played a role in escalating tensions between Georgia and Russia in the build-up to the war that broke out on 7 August.

In May Georgia released video pictures of what it said was a Russian jet shooting down a Georgian drone over Abkhazia.

Georgia said the jet had breached its territorial integrity – which was at that stage still recognised by Russia.

Russia denied its jet was involved, though UN monitors backed the Georgian claim.

Earlier in the month Abkhaz fighters said they had shot down two Georgian drones over Abkhazia – a claim denied by Georgia.

In July Russia admitted its jets had flown over South Ossetia.

The conflict in the region began when Georgia tried to retake South Ossetia by force after a series of lower-level clashes.

Russia launched a counter-attack and the Georgian troops were ejected from both South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Georgia and Ukraine ‘shouldn’t join Nato’

By Paul Reynolds


World affairs correspondent, BBC News website

Russian armour in South Ossetia

Russian armour in South Ossetia: who started the war?

In a potentially significant swing of expert Western opinion, a leading British think tank has urged that Nato membership should not be granted to Georgia or Ukraine.

“The policy of Nato enlargement now would be a strategic error,” said Dr John Chipman, Director General of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

“There is no case for accelerating membership for Georgia and Ukraine. There is a strong case for a pause,” he said in remarks introducing the IISS’s annual review of world affairs, the Strategic Survey.

Current Nato policy, decided at a summit meeting in Bucharest in April, is that both countries should become members eventually but no timetable has been set.

Who started the war?

The IISS intervention shows that following the war in Georgia, a debate is growing about whether a confrontational approach to Russia is the best one.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili

The IISS is critical of Georgia’s actions during the conflict

The IISS is highly critical of Georgian actions – in contrast to the support Georgia has received from the US and some European countries, notably Britain. Naturally, if Georgia is faulted, then less blame can be put on Russia, whatever its reaction or, as some hold, its over-reaction.

Dr Chipman said that the “balance of evidence suggests that Georgia started this war”.

Georgia has claimed that Russian forces had already started to enter South Ossetia by the time it acted. Russia has said that it responded to a Georgian attack.

Pressure seems to be growing for an international inquiry into the actual sequence of events.

The IISS position will undermine sympathy for Georgia and its leader President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Its analysis is that Georgia ignored American warnings not to go into South Ossetia and is therefore an unreliable partner at present.

‘No give and take’

But the importance of the intervention goes beyond that, as it calls for a calmer approach to relations with Russia.

“There have been major errors of presentation of policy towards Russia. The US and Nato have in the past told Russia to accept whatever was happening. There was no give and take. We are disappointed at the way some Western leaders pushed the Cold War button after Georgia,” said Dr Chipman. “We should not over-inflate the crisis.”

He added: “The events of August 2008 do not signify fresh steps towards a new Cold War, because neither side wants one and the stakes are too low to warrant one.”

Role for EU

Another IISS expert, Oksana Antonenko, reflected the IISS view that with a decline in US influence, the EU should be more active in formulating policy initiatives – but it lacked the means to do so.

She said it was good timing that France – a major, influential country -held EU presidency during the Georgia crisis.

“It highlighted the fact that EU institutions are highly incapable ones,” she said.

“We urgently need a mechanism to stop the presidency from fluctuating between different member states.”


We are disappointed at the way some Western leaders pushed the Cold War button after Georgia
John Chipman, IISS

The Lisbon Treaty does provide for a permanent presidency and a strengthened foreign policy representative, but it has not been ratified.

The IISS report came on a day when Nato defence ministers were meeting in London. There is some feeling in Nato that its priority should be to do more to reassure its existing members, especially those close to Russia, rather than rushing to bring in new members. And that is a view supported in the IISS report.

A great deal will depend on the views of the next American president. The Bush administration is all for pushing on with membership for Ukraine and Georgia, and the issue will be taken up again at Nato meetings in December.

A British official predicted that there would be no slowing of support for Georgia and no disposition to reward Russia.

But no quick decisions are likely in the current uncertain state of affairs.

Paul.Reynolds-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk