Friday, August 22nd, 2008



Thousands of people, using all modes of transport, have started converging on the vast Eidgah Grounds in Srinagar, after the state authorities decided to allow the ‘Eidgah Chalo’ march called by separatists.

There has been no extra deployment of police or paramilitary personnel on city roads or in the other towns of the valley.

Today will be the first time that Friday prayers are offered at the Eidgah Ground, which is normally used for Eid prayers only.

According to the police, one person was electrocuted and four others received serious burn injuries when a vehicle overloaded with people and on its way to the Eidgah Ground, crashed into a high-tension live electric wire at Bejibehara in southern Kashmir.

This is the fourth march called by the separatists in the last 12 days and all of the marches have received tremendous response.

The authorities have ordered security forces to exercise restraint. They have also appealed to the marchers to maintain peace and not to resort to any provocative measures.

After offering Friday’s prayers, the separatist leaders will address the mammoth rally.


A new generation seeks Azadi

The morning after the auspicious day of Shabhi Barat, the day when the almighty decides one’s fate and when people stay up all night praying for their destiny, there was no doubt what the Kashmir Valley had wished for: Azadi.

On Monday morning, Srinagar woke up to truck after truck with green flag-waving, green bandana-sporting youth. They came in all means of transport and from all over the Valley. Buses, cars, trucks, motorcycles and even the odd government civil supplies department vehicle appropriated for the occasion.

The Valley had converged in Srinagar following a call from the All Party Hurriyat Conference to march to the United Nations Military Observers Group office in the heart of the city. For the separatist leaders, the call had two purposes — to internationalise the issue and to gauge the intensity of the newly re-ignited call for freedom — before the leaders could decide how best to take it forward.

While the first was served by way of a memorandum to the UN, there was no saying if the response helped the leadership in any way. They were overwhelmed.

Anti-Indian — ‘Crush India’, ‘When the Lashkar comes, India will be defeated’ — and pro-Pakistani — ‘Kashmir ki mandi� Rawalpindi’. ‘Seb toh sirf bahana hain, Rawalpindi jaana hain’ — slogans punctuated the relentless call for Azadi as the crowd of more than 1,00,000 made its way to the Tourists Reception Centre grounds in the centre of the city.

Giving Kashmir away? No way
Is it an orchestrated coincidence or random chance that on August 17, two leading national dailies prominently carried commentaries advocating independence for the Kashmir Valley? With surprising ease and lack of angst, each author has argued in favour of secession by part of an integrally constituted state of the Union of India.

Tremendous efforts by all the state and non-state personae in Jammu & Kashmir and the rest of India over the last six decades have seen sharp ups and downs, almost see-saw phases in the feelings of alienation followed by assimilation, poverty followed by growing prosperity among the people of this state.

The last few years have brought in the most sustained period of political stability, free and fair elections, economic recovery and strengthening integration, achieved through painstaking efforts and sagacity by all players. Heading into the November 2008 state assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir, the separatist groups found themselves on the sidelines, threatened with further irrelevance and declining support should these elections be held as smoothly and with equally wide participation as those in 2002.

The Amarnath Yatra land issue that surfaced in June has been extremely poorly handled by the state and central governments at every stage. The nation needs answers and accountability about why in less than two months the marginalised separatist groups are once again being allowed to set the political agenda in the Valley. Why have no efforts been made to explain the reality of the proposed temporary land allocation scheme (for the Amarnath Yatra) to the agitating people in the Kashmir Valley? Why have the strong feelings of every community in Jammu over the cancellation of the allocation been so deliberately ignored and under-estimated? Why is it that even the most elementary efforts were not undertaken to disabuse the people of Kashmir Valley about a so-called economic blockade? If there was at any point the possibility of a shortage of essential supplies for the people of the Kashmir Valley this should have been overcome by arranging sufficient airlifts and/or trucking in such supplies through the alternative Manali-Leh route.

At the same time, no matter how serious these lapses, the answer cannot be to suggest that the Kashmir Valley be allowed to secede from India. The sovereignty and territorial integrity of a nation is as much a composite whole as the human body is. If there is an ailing part of the body, you diagnose the problem and take remedial measures, not carelessly, almost casually, suggest an excision and discarding of the offending section.

For those who advocate a referendum in Jammu and Kashmir, there are some questions. Do they feel that Jammu and Kashmir legally and constitutionally cannot be considered a part of India? On what basis can there be a referendum in the Kashmir Valley, or separate referenda in Jammu, Ladakh and the Valley? On what basis can “independence” be considered as the so-called third option? Should the proposed referendum be based on the UN resolutions of August 1948 and January 1949? Or are such sentiments the manifestation of a simultaneous bout of exasperation and giving in to the separatists who have been quite unnecessarily allowed to mount pressures in a sudden reversal of the peaceful situation that existed in the state prior to June?

The UN resolutions of 1948/49 (adopted by the UN Commission for India and Pakistan) are unequivocal and specific in making the proposed plebiscite in all the five regions of Jammu and Kashmir conditional upon (i) withdrawal of Pakistani troops from all the areas of the state of Jammu and Kashmir that it has occupied (this includes PoK, the Northern Territories and the Shaksgam valley that has been ceded by Pakistan to China); and (ii) the withdrawal by Pakistan, from these occupied areas of Jammu and Kashmir, of their tribesmen and nationals not ordinarily resident in these areas. The UN Commission in an aide-memoire issued on January 14, 1949, stated that in the event of Pakistan not implementing these pre-conditions, India’s acceptance of the UN resolutions would no longer be binding on them.

As recently as March 2001 former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, speaking in Islamabad, accepted the legal and practical difficulties in implementing the UN resolutions and hence their irrelevance. It is evident that the UN resolutions no longer provide any basis for holding referenda either in the Kashmir Valley or in Jammu and Ladakh.

Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India, and will remain so. The Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir itself recognises this. Any move to hold a referendum in any part of Jammu and Kashmir would contradict the fundamental statement in Section 3 of the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir that ‘the State of Jammu and Kashmir is and shall be an integral part of the Union of India’. Section 147 prohibits any amendment of Section 3 by the state legislature. In any case, India has stringent laws that forbid secessionist activity.

It is time that the people of India and all national political parties come out unequivocally against anyone who advocates secessionism. In this context, the print and electronic media too should be more responsible about giving prominence to such views.

Violence escalates in Kashmir
Twelve persons have been killed in firing by security forces on protestors in Jammu and Kashmir, where an indefinite curfew has been imposed.

Police said 80 persons, including police and paramilitary personnel, were injured in Tuesday’s violence.

In curfew-bound Kishtwar in the Jammu area, the army was called out after two persons were killed and over 20 others injured in clashes, police firing and a grenade blast, officials said.

Police earlier lobbed teargas shells to disperse groups belonging to two communities which pelted stones at each other at Kishtwar’s Hidyal Chowk.

India gets another bronze after loosing Vijendra Kumar in semi-final boxing ring 75 kg category.

Indian boxer Vijender Kumar settled for a bronze medal at the 2008 Olympics after being out-punched by Cuban Emilio Correa Bayeaux in the semi-finals of the 75 kg category in Beijing on Friday.

The 22-year-old was simply out-thought by his Cuban rival who negated the height and reach advantage of Vijender by fighting from a long range to score an 8-5 win.
The world is now scared to face Indian boxers: Vijender

But even in defeat, Vijender has made history, becoming the only Indian boxer to clinch an Olympic medal.

Vijender, who also won bronze at the Doha Asian Games, struggled to connect his punches and was trailing from the very start.

In fact he failed to score a single point in the opening round, which ended 2-0 in the Cuban’s favour.

Forced to play the catch-up game, Vijender managed a slight recovery in the second round as he reduced the deficit to just one point ending the second round 3-4 behind.
Sushil Kumar grapples to glory

Bayeaux stuck to his strategy of back-paddling after landing punches, most of which were straight and more importantly precise.

The Cuban’s lightening fast reflexes thwarted Vijender’s attacks and the Indian once again failed to score in the third round.

The decider saw a desperate Vijender on the offensive but the Cuban survived the brief assault, although earning a two-point penalty for committing a foul, leaving the scoreline 8-5.


Currently situation in Kashmir is very worse. Only and only Indian government is responsible for this position. India deployed a huge number of army personel in Kashmir. Worsen condition in kashmir is only due to Indian Army as well as J&K Police. Last 30 days Jammu caught is fire on amarnath agitation but Indian government did not took any desition how to stop current agitation.
The psudo Secular parties are responcible for these agitaion. mainly congress and Communist are responcible for these angry agitation.

THE TWO month long Amarnath agitation has not lost momentum in Jammu region and despite life remaining paralysed for the last 50 days, the enthusiasm and support to the agitation has not withered. Continuing their strong protests against the Amarnath land transfer order, around two-lakh people on Monday (August 18) responded to the Jail Bharo call of the Shree Amarnath Yatra Sangarsh Samiti (SAYSS).

People from all across the region came out of their homes in the morning in overwhelming numbers and courted arrest as a mark of protest against the land order.

According to reports, large number of people gathered in Jammu city, Udhampur, Kathua, Hiranagar and Reasi and other major towns and villages on the call of the SAYSS, which is spearheading the agitation.

In the morning today, around 10 000 people gathered at City Chowk in Jammu city and took out a procession. Chanting ’Bum Bum Bole’ the protesters passed through main roads of the city and reached the city chowk police station and asked the cops to arrest them.

This was carried out in all the 16 police stations of Jammu city, with thousands of protesters shouting slogans against the state administration and governor N N Vohra. The protesters were later taken to MAM stadium and other schools and colleges, which were turned into jails for the time being.

Udhampur city witnessed a huge turnout and the situation turned violent after protesters clashed with security personnel. Police resorted to lathi charge and tear gas shells were fired to control the protesters, who were demanding the ouster of governor N N Vohra and return of the Amarnath land.

A large turnout was also reported in Samba and Kathua districts, but the protests remained largely peaceful and there was no report of any untoward incident.

Meanwhile, Shree Amarnath Sangarsh Samiti (SASS) termed the response to the Jail Bharo andolan as overwhelming and said it was a historic day for the people of Jammu. Brigadier Suchet Singh, speaking to merinews, claimed that more than three lakh people had participated in today’s Jail Bharo andolan.

Singh also criticised the state administration for failing to provide even basic facilities in the makeshift prisons. “The state did not even provide water to the agitating people,” he said, adding that the people of Jammu have entered into a do or die mode and will not stop till their goal is achieved.

This agitation has the support of the rich and poor and cuts across religious and regional lines, Singh asserted, “Abhi nahi to Kabhi nahi” this is the war cry of the people.

Criticising the Union government for its appeasement policy, Singh alleged that government is delaying a decision in the hope that this agitation will peter off. “This is a people’s movement and will achieve its goal,” he said. India is concerned only about the Hurriyat and Kashmiris and it will not be tolerated at any cost.

Warning that the agitation could further intensify and mode of action could change, Singh asked the Union government to realise its mistakes and take corrective action otherwise there could be more unrest and trouble.

The Samiti leaders also registered their strong resentment against certain sections of the national media, which they said were portraying the agitation as communal and sectarian.

There is deep concern among leading South Asia watchers in Washington over the volatile situation in Kashmir and the renewed cry for independence by the separatists which they fear could revert to the Intifada-like agitation of the 1990s.

These experts also acknowledged that the situation may also provide elements in Pakistan, especially the ISI, more so in the wake of the upheaval brought on by President Pervez Musharraf’s resignation and the dysfunctional government in Islamabad , an opportunity to foment yet another insurgency in the Valley and ramp up a proxy war reminiscent of old against India.

Former diplomat Howard B Schaffer, who served for 36 years in the US Foreign Service, of which a total of eight were spent in New Delhi during which time he was the US government’s principal expert on Kashmir, said, “I am very much discouraged by this situation in Kashmir. It really reflects the ultimate inability of the Indian government to reconcile the people of Kashmir to their connection with India.”

Schaffer, who while at the State Department, served two terms as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, at the time the senior-most position in the Administration dealing with the subcontinent, said, “It was very badly handled,” by the government of India, and while acknowledging that like the uprising in 1989-1990 “it was home generated,” warned that “as happened then, the Pakistanis are very likely to fish in troubled waters, even though God knows, they’ve got enough problems on their hands.”

Currently, the Director of Studies at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, which is part of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, he said it was indeed ironic that the Indian National Security Adviser M K Narayanan was on Thursday lamenting the exit of Musharraf and talking about a ‘political demise,’ in Pakistan following his departure.

Schaffer, who is completing one of the most comprehensive books on US foreign policy vis-�-vis Kashmir, titled America’s Role in Kashmir: The Limits of Influence, said, “For sure, Musharraf was devoted to this peace process — he got it started in 2004 — but before that, you remember, he was very much in the bad books of the Indian government and the Indian public.”

“He was the Kargil man, his government was behind the attack on (the Indian) Parliament and so on and so forth, so that we got to remember that there was a considerable reversal (from the earlier moves at rapprochement with New Delhi initiated by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif whom Musharraf deposed). But, not only did he get the peace process restarted, but he also made proposals that were unprecedented for Pakistan, such as finding a solution outside the framework of the UN resolutions.”

Schaffer said if was also Musharraf, who accepted ‘the Line of Control as a permanent boundary and these things will now not continue because whatever government is in power in Islamabad — whether it is dominated by the Pakistan People’s Party or whether Nawaz (Sharif) comes in — they won’t be able to make concessions of this sort that Musharraf was able to make when he was strongly, firmly in power.”

“And, so there will be a temptation as there already has been to play for the audience and that can only continue to have a bad reaction in India,” he said, and added, “But you never thought did you that India would be longing for the good old days with General Musharraf.”

Schaffer acknowledged that it has always been the case for Pakistani civilian government’s when it is beset by domestic problems to rake up the Kashmir issue and even though the current situation in Jammu and Kashmir began with a domestic conflagration over land allocation for Amarnath pilgrims, Pakistan was trying to get mileage out of it and internationalize it, even as it could give ideas to rogue elements in the ISI and the Army to exacerbate the agitation of the separatists and militants.

He hoped that Pakistan’s Army Chief, ‘General (Ashfaq) Kiyani will be sensible enough to recognize the stakes involved and to understand where Pakistan’s priorities now rest. As I said before, the last thing it should want to do is to get itself into a tiff with India.’

Schaffer acknowledged, “I don’t see that as a way of, even in the middle term, developing its popularity, but it may feel so and I think if it does, it will be a major mistake.”

The other half of this Washington ‘power couple,’ when it comes to foreign policy on South Asia, his wife, Teresita Schaffer, who also served in South Asia and has nearly three decades of experience as a diplomat, and succeeded her husband as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, echoed similar sentiments.

Teresita said she believed the current government in Islamabad “wants to keep things on an even keel and eventually to pursue the peace dialogue. But the disturbances in Kashmir will put pressure on that whole situation — and will tempt those who don’t want peace to meddle. So, I am worried.”

“It is certainly an opportunity for trouble,” she added, and noted, “There are both similarities and differences with the 1990s. One interesting difference is the role of the Amarnath land issue and of the Jammu Hindu community.”

Schaffer, now the head of the South Asia program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said, “The Amarnath land grant got a lot of people stirred up, but when the new governor, N N Vohra, resolved that, it was people from Jammu who expanded the protest. So, far more than the previous episodes, this one has local roots.”

Sumit Ganguly, professor of political science and Director of the India Studies Program at Indiana University in Bloomington, however, did not believe it could become another Intifada like in the 1990s, “especially if the Indian State, however, belatedly, manages to demonstrate a degree of dexterity in defusing the crisis.”

“It has already shown, after one or two initial missteps, that it is capable of showing restraint even in the face of grave provocation,” he said. “It needs to keep doing more of the same despite pressures from within elements of the national security establishment to adopt a harder line.”

Ganguly argued that “it also needs to douse the flames in Jammu as they tend to generate their own fires in the Valley.”

But, he warned that “the wild card in all of this, remains both the Islamists and the Hindu zealots, who thrive on each other follies and short-sighted goals and actions.”

Former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs Karl F Inderfurth, now a professor of international relations at George Washington University and foreign policy adviser to the Obama presidential campaign, said, “There have been a lot of reasons that go back several weeks as to how this thing flared up.”

But, he too agreed that “there are those who do want to reverse the (peace) process,” between India and Pakistan, “and with the distracted political leadership in Pakistan, I believe that some of these forces are beginning to assert themselves again.”

Robert Hathaway, director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a former Congressional staffer on South Asia on the Foreign Affairs Committee, also expressed concern and said, “It is something for the US and the international community to watch,” and make clear to Pakistan it would not tolerate any meddling by the ISI or elements within the Army.

“I am very concerned and clearly it has the potential to unravel and the situation is far more worrisome than it was earlier, because American intelligence has conclusive evidence that elements associated with the ISI were involved in planning and perhaps even carrying out the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul,” he said.

Hathaway acknowledged that “the current upsurge in violence and in agitation is the result of conditions within both Jammu and the Valley itself and the increased violence and the increased tension in the Valley was largely the result of developments within the Valley. So, I could believe that I am not going to point the finger at Pakistan because of that.”

“But neither can we rule out that they are not involved because we all know that Pakistan has a long history of fishing in troubled waters in Kashmir. It has a long history of supporting insurgent groups of various sorts,” he added.


Currently situation in Kashmir is very worse. Only and only Indian government is responsible for this position. India deployed a huge number of army personel in Kashmir. Worsen condition in kashmir is only due to Indian Army as well as J&K Police. Last 30 days Jammu caught is fire on amarnath agitation but Indian government did not took any desition how to stop current agitation.
The psudo Secular parties are responcible for these agitaion. mainly congress and Communist are responcible for these angry agitation.

THE TWO month long Amarnath agitation has not lost momentum in Jammu region and despite life remaining paralysed for the last 50 days, the enthusiasm and support to the agitation has not withered. Continuing their strong protests against the Amarnath land transfer order, around two-lakh people on Monday (August 18) responded to the Jail Bharo call of the Shree Amarnath Yatra Sangarsh Samiti (SAYSS).

People from all across the region came out of their homes in the morning in overwhelming numbers and courted arrest as a mark of protest against the land order.

According to reports, large number of people gathered in Jammu city, Udhampur, Kathua, Hiranagar and Reasi and other major towns and villages on the call of the SAYSS, which is spearheading the agitation.

In the morning today, around 10 000 people gathered at City Chowk in Jammu city and took out a procession. Chanting ’Bum Bum Bole’ the protesters passed through main roads of the city and reached the city chowk police station and asked the cops to arrest them.

This was carried out in all the 16 police stations of Jammu city, with thousands of protesters shouting slogans against the state administration and governor N N Vohra. The protesters were later taken to MAM stadium and other schools and colleges, which were turned into jails for the time being.

Udhampur city witnessed a huge turnout and the situation turned violent after protesters clashed with security personnel. Police resorted to lathi charge and tear gas shells were fired to control the protesters, who were demanding the ouster of governor N N Vohra and return of the Amarnath land.

A large turnout was also reported in Samba and Kathua districts, but the protests remained largely peaceful and there was no report of any untoward incident.

Meanwhile, Shree Amarnath Sangarsh Samiti (SASS) termed the response to the Jail Bharo andolan as overwhelming and said it was a historic day for the people of Jammu. Brigadier Suchet Singh, speaking to merinews, claimed that more than three lakh people had participated in today’s Jail Bharo andolan.

Singh also criticised the state administration for failing to provide even basic facilities in the makeshift prisons. “The state did not even provide water to the agitating people,” he said, adding that the people of Jammu have entered into a do or die mode and will not stop till their goal is achieved.

This agitation has the support of the rich and poor and cuts across religious and regional lines, Singh asserted, “Abhi nahi to Kabhi nahi” this is the war cry of the people.

Criticising the Union government for its appeasement policy, Singh alleged that government is delaying a decision in the hope that this agitation will peter off. “This is a people’s movement and will achieve its goal,” he said. India is concerned only about the Hurriyat and Kashmiris and it will not be tolerated at any cost.

Warning that the agitation could further intensify and mode of action could change, Singh asked the Union government to realise its mistakes and take corrective action otherwise there could be more unrest and trouble.

The Samiti leaders also registered their strong resentment against certain sections of the national media, which they said were portraying the agitation as communal and sectarian.

There is deep concern among leading South Asia watchers in Washington over the volatile situation in Kashmir and the renewed cry for independence by the separatists which they fear could revert to the Intifada-like agitation of the 1990s.

These experts also acknowledged that the situation may also provide elements in Pakistan, especially the ISI, more so in the wake of the upheaval brought on by President Pervez Musharraf’s resignation and the dysfunctional government in Islamabad , an opportunity to foment yet another insurgency in the Valley and ramp up a proxy war reminiscent of old against India.

Former diplomat Howard B Schaffer, who served for 36 years in the US Foreign Service, of which a total of eight were spent in New Delhi during which time he was the US government’s principal expert on Kashmir, said, “I am very much discouraged by this situation in Kashmir. It really reflects the ultimate inability of the Indian government to reconcile the people of Kashmir to their connection with India.”

Schaffer, who while at the State Department, served two terms as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, at the time the senior-most position in the Administration dealing with the subcontinent, said, “It was very badly handled,” by the government of India, and while acknowledging that like the uprising in 1989-1990 “it was home generated,” warned that “as happened then, the Pakistanis are very likely to fish in troubled waters, even though God knows, they’ve got enough problems on their hands.”

Currently, the Director of Studies at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, which is part of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, he said it was indeed ironic that the Indian National Security Adviser M K Narayanan was on Thursday lamenting the exit of Musharraf and talking about a ‘political demise,’ in Pakistan following his departure.

Schaffer, who is completing one of the most comprehensive books on US foreign policy vis-�-vis Kashmir, titled America’s Role in Kashmir: The Limits of Influence, said, “For sure, Musharraf was devoted to this peace process — he got it started in 2004 — but before that, you remember, he was very much in the bad books of the Indian government and the Indian public.”

“He was the Kargil man, his government was behind the attack on (the Indian) Parliament and so on and so forth, so that we got to remember that there was a considerable reversal (from the earlier moves at rapprochement with New Delhi initiated by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif whom Musharraf deposed). But, not only did he get the peace process restarted, but he also made proposals that were unprecedented for Pakistan, such as finding a solution outside the framework of the UN resolutions.”

Schaffer said if was also Musharraf, who accepted ‘the Line of Control as a permanent boundary and these things will now not continue because whatever government is in power in Islamabad — whether it is dominated by the Pakistan People’s Party or whether Nawaz (Sharif) comes in — they won’t be able to make concessions of this sort that Musharraf was able to make when he was strongly, firmly in power.”

“And, so there will be a temptation as there already has been to play for the audience and that can only continue to have a bad reaction in India,” he said, and added, “But you never thought did you that India would be longing for the good old days with General Musharraf.”

Schaffer acknowledged that it has always been the case for Pakistani civilian government’s when it is beset by domestic problems to rake up the Kashmir issue and even though the current situation in Jammu and Kashmir began with a domestic conflagration over land allocation for Amarnath pilgrims, Pakistan was trying to get mileage out of it and internationalize it, even as it could give ideas to rogue elements in the ISI and the Army to exacerbate the agitation of the separatists and militants.

He hoped that Pakistan’s Army Chief, ‘General (Ashfaq) Kiyani will be sensible enough to recognize the stakes involved and to understand where Pakistan’s priorities now rest. As I said before, the last thing it should want to do is to get itself into a tiff with India.’

Schaffer acknowledged, “I don’t see that as a way of, even in the middle term, developing its popularity, but it may feel so and I think if it does, it will be a major mistake.”

The other half of this Washington ‘power couple,’ when it comes to foreign policy on South Asia, his wife, Teresita Schaffer, who also served in South Asia and has nearly three decades of experience as a diplomat, and succeeded her husband as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, echoed similar sentiments.

Teresita said she believed the current government in Islamabad “wants to keep things on an even keel and eventually to pursue the peace dialogue. But the disturbances in Kashmir will put pressure on that whole situation — and will tempt those who don’t want peace to meddle. So, I am worried.”

“It is certainly an opportunity for trouble,” she added, and noted, “There are both similarities and differences with the 1990s. One interesting difference is the role of the Amarnath land issue and of the Jammu Hindu community.”

Schaffer, now the head of the South Asia program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said, “The Amarnath land grant got a lot of people stirred up, but when the new governor, N N Vohra, resolved that, it was people from Jammu who expanded the protest. So, far more than the previous episodes, this one has local roots.”

Sumit Ganguly, professor of political science and Director of the India Studies Program at Indiana University in Bloomington, however, did not believe it could become another Intifada like in the 1990s, “especially if the Indian State, however, belatedly, manages to demonstrate a degree of dexterity in defusing the crisis.”

“It has already shown, after one or two initial missteps, that it is capable of showing restraint even in the face of grave provocation,” he said. “It needs to keep doing more of the same despite pressures from within elements of the national security establishment to adopt a harder line.”

Ganguly argued that “it also needs to douse the flames in Jammu as they tend to generate their own fires in the Valley.”

But, he warned that “the wild card in all of this, remains both the Islamists and the Hindu zealots, who thrive on each other follies and short-sighted goals and actions.”

Former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs Karl F Inderfurth, now a professor of international relations at George Washington University and foreign policy adviser to the Obama presidential campaign, said, “There have been a lot of reasons that go back several weeks as to how this thing flared up.”

But, he too agreed that “there are those who do want to reverse the (peace) process,” between India and Pakistan, “and with the distracted political leadership in Pakistan, I believe that some of these forces are beginning to assert themselves again.”

Robert Hathaway, director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a former Congressional staffer on South Asia on the Foreign Affairs Committee, also expressed concern and said, “It is something for the US and the international community to watch,” and make clear to Pakistan it would not tolerate any meddling by the ISI or elements within the Army.

“I am very concerned and clearly it has the potential to unravel and the situation is far more worrisome than it was earlier, because American intelligence has conclusive evidence that elements associated with the ISI were involved in planning and perhaps even carrying out the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul,” he said.

Hathaway acknowledged that “the current upsurge in violence and in agitation is the result of conditions within both Jammu and the Valley itself and the increased violence and the increased tension in the Valley was largely the result of developments within the Valley. So, I could believe that I am not going to point the finger at Pakistan because of that.”

“But neither can we rule out that they are not involved because we all know that Pakistan has a long history of fishing in troubled waters in Kashmir. It has a long history of supporting insurgent groups of various sorts,” he added.